Osinbajo vs Tinubu – Decades Of Betrayal and Uncertainty – Abimbola Davis

The emergence of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo has no doubt changed the political calculations of so many pundits. Although since expected, most believed Pastor Osinbajo would never contest against his benefactor and political leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Some schools of thought even believe that as a Christian,  he contesting against the man who made him politically would be another story of Jesus and Judas Iscariot. But it has happened. The question is “does Osinbajo have a right to the Presidency?” Yes, he does. Morally and considering his relationship with Asiwaju, has he a right? Well, some believe he has no right, in fact, some believe he has bitten the finger that fed him. Many people also blame Pastor Adeboye, the General Overseer of the RCCG. They blamed him for his failure  to caution and advise the Vice President not to venture into such an ambition. Some even believe he led the VP into the pool that might lead to embarrassment and disgrace. They justified this by the Political Department set up by Adeboye at RCCG. In this article, I have decided to write briefly on why Professor Osinbajo, the Vice President, may find it difficult to defeat Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Yoruba people are known for their hatred for betrayals. It is worth of note that this will come into play in Tinubu-Osinbajo candidacy. As of today, it is difficult to convince an unlettered Yoruba man or woman that Osinbajo contesting against Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not a betrayal. It is a battle the Vice President needs to fight. A stigma that even the power of anointing of the General Overseer of the RCCG, Pastor Adeboye cannot easily remove.
Second is the religious bigotry aspect. It is a known fact that Northerners do not play with Islam. In that regard,  the personality of the Vice President and the action of Pastor Adeboye in setting up a Political Wing of RCCG would never be advantageous to the candidate of Pastor Adeboye but rather, a very huge disadvantage and burden. It is a fact that the Christ Apostolic Church may not follow RCCG under Adeboye, neither will Celestial Church or Cherubim and Seraphim. The reason is simple, Pentecostal see them as unholy! Forget CAN and their money-making and relevance-seeking vibes. Watch this line very well as things will start unfolding very soon. It is important also to note that even within RCCG, millions of people are in support of Asiwaju as they would be of PDP candidate and Osinbajo.
Polio Scandal: If you will recall, during the first term campaign of this government, a huge scandal on Polio-Pfizer-Osinbajo reared its head but was nipped in the bud by the Tinubu media warriors. It will come again, this time verocious than you can imagine. The question is, can the VP handle such? I doubt it.
Political Structure: The Vice President has none! The ladders of political successes of this government still reside with Asiwaju. He is loved more in the North beyond our imaginations. He has supported many of them and unlike the Southerners, the Northerners are always ready to reciprocate such love. I doubt if Osinbajo, the VP, can boast of that.
Simple Political Calculation:  How is Presidential Election decided in Nigeria? Just 4 states. Lagos, Kano, Kaduna and Rivers. As good as it looks, the South West and Eastern votes barely has any effect. The winner only counts on the two-third of the states. How many friends has the VP built or made that can assist in these areas?
Elites: They are pundits who do not vote! Electioneering is beyond book codes. The voters in the North believe and eternally believe in their leaders. Unfortunately,  our votes in the South-west will be shared.
Oodua Nation: It will not help either Asiwaju or VP Osinbajo as none of them is seen to have canvassed support for its realisation. Anyway, to both of them, being a President is bigger and better than being a regional leader.
Presidency: This is a key factor and the only factor that can swing the votes either way. The power of the President of Nigeria is enormous. Until Mr. President decides where his pendulum is swinging, none of the aspirants can say clearly that he is 30% sure of his position. The question remains, who is the President  supporting? Or, is there a candidate yet to be unveiled? Keep guessing.
For now, except something goes wrong, I can’t see His Excellency,  Osinbajo defeating Asiwaju in any area.