10th August, 2014. 7:05 am: ‘ with the total number of votes of the APC which is 394,413 against that of the PDP’s 292,687 I hereby declare Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola the winner of the Osun State governorship elections’. This pronouncement by the Vice Chancellor of the Obafemi Awolowo University, Professor Bamitale Omole not only cleared the Governor of Osun State, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola for a second term, it also plunged political pundits and analysts into action to decipher the figures, facts and factors that denied Senator Iyiola the chances of achieving his ambition of becoming the Governor of Osun State.The Ekiti election

The ‘easy’ victory of Peter Ayodele Fayose over the incumbent Governor of Ekiti State, Dr Kayode Fayemi must have been a litmus test for Governor Aregbesola to prepare himself well against any unforeseen jokers that the PDP must have planned to deploy to achieve the same feat in the election. The plans to arrest and detain APC stalwarts some hours to the election in Osun State failed woefully as the party hierarchy had already designed a plot and evaded the security personnel who were to carry out the instruction. A fragment of the APC members (like Lai Mohammed) who were not really on ground for the execution of the election project were picked up and later released.
The plot which is considered one of the modus operandi of the PDP was first tested in Ekiti and became a magic wand which would still be used to achieve feats in future elections which was not to be in the case of Osun State .

THE PDP FALLOUT

Many observers who see politics as a game of numbers had already predicted a loss for Omisore at the polls judging from the crises in his party that led to the disengagement of the likes of Olagunsoye Oyinlola, Fatai Akinbade, Isiaka Adeleke and a lot of other party stalwarts from PDP. Omisore was said to have counted so much on his connection at the Federal level that he became arrogant and didn’t realise on time that the votes would come from the nooks and crannies of the State and not from the Federal.
Omisore who counted on the massive deployment of soldiers and police force that were at his beck and call couldn’t muster enough strength to convince the electorates on how he was better than their incumbent Governor and lives to regret this.
It was also gathered from a reliable source that the Presidency in whom he invested all his hopes allegedly decided against a ‘scientific method’ which would have won him a landslide with the excuse of averting crisis in the state.
Another factor that came up from his party infraction is the selection of his running mate, Adejare Bello whom many considered to be a political liability.

The Ife/Modakeke, Ife/Ijesa factor

The political zoning where both the contestants come from the same Federal constituency of Ife/Ijesa is a big factor as the highest number of votes usually come from Ife, Osogbo and Ilesa. It is opined that all the Ijesa towns and villages would vote for Aregbesola while the Ife communities would vote for Omisore without considering the odds against Omisore with the people of Modakeke.
The Modakeke people who are at all times at war with Ife did the usual when they massively voted against Omisore.
Aside from Omisore being an Ife prince, sources claimed that the role he played during the last Ife/Modakeke communal clashes sealed his fate with the Modakekes. He was alleged to be very instrumental in the recruitment of mercenaries for the Ife people which was seen as a breach of the peace pact signed with the Modakekes by the late Ooni of Ife, Oba Adesoji Aderemi.

Aregbesola factor

The Osun State Governor, Rauf Aregbesola himself is not a small fry in the matter of politics. ‘Ogbeni’ has proved himself worth on many fronts and his laurels and achievements in politics if combined together could sink a ship. The strategist is considered the winning formula of the APC and he was always used as the face of the party’s campaign anywhere they are contesting.
Aregbesola who is an experienced, grassroot politician is highly revered and his words in many places is the law and that is why till today he is regarded as the ‘man that wins Lagos’ for the APC because of his influence and method that wins Alimoso(the biggest Local Government in Nigeria) for his party.
Aregbesola is also a religious figure who once boasted in an interview that he had never tasted alcohol nor slept with any woman other than his wife, a boast that remains a wish for the PDP candidate, Senator Iyiola Omisore.

The myth

There is a myth surrounding the person of Senator Iyiola Omisore in Osun State. The man must have won a Senatorial seat from prison and must have won for himself a larger image in the country’s politics but there is a belief that the gods does not want him to rule the State. Many people who rely on prophecy termed his inability to realise his ambition of almost 2 decades on the game the gods are playing on him. Omisore made known his intention to contest in the Alliance for Democracy in 1999 but was tricked into sponsoring Chief Bisi Akande with a promise that he would be given the chance after Akande must have completed his first term in office, which was not to be. Again fate played another fast one on him when he stepped down for Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola and now when he actually got his party’s approval to contest fate dealt him another blow by giving Governor Aregbesola a clear winning of 101,456 votes.

Bola Ige factor

Just like Macbeth, a character in one of William Shakespeare’s plays that murdered King Duncan and was haunted throughout his life, Omisore carried the death blame of the late Attorney-General, Chief Bola Ige on his neck.
Long before the elections there was an allegation by the son of the late politician, Muyiwa who is the Osun State Commissioner for Lands, Physical Planning and Urban development who claimed ‘you killed my father’ in an interview which took the Omisore some weeks to tackle.
The Bola Ige’s death still remains one of the biggest factors that stand against the politician wherever he goes and he isn’t the only person the blame hunts, it extended to some of his disciples like the Minister for Police Affairs, Jelili Adesiyan who wept like a baby when he was to be confirmed as Minister and the Senate asked him ‘who killed Bola Ige?’